In a recent post by The Electric Viking, attention was drawn to Toyota’s striking declaration that electric vehicles would only ever constitute 30% of the global car market. Here’s the full story.
Toyota’s Controversial Position
The video host, Sam, shared Toyota’s belief that EVs will not dominate the market as widely predicted by various organizations. Contrary to forecasts suggesting a 70% market share for EVs by 2030, Toyota’s Chief claimed that electric cars will only capture 30% of the automotive market. This stands in stark contrast to recent industry sentiments that project a significant shift toward electric mobility in the coming decade.
Sam highlighted Toyota’s commitment to hybrid technology and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, forming the basis for the company’s divergent outlook. Despite global trends favoring the transition to electric power, Toyota remained all-in on its investments in hybrids and hydrogen-powered vehicles. The video questioned the viability of this strategy, especially as many countries, including Europe, announced plans to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles, which would include hybrids.
Challenges and Criticisms Faced by Toyota
In the video, Sam accepted the criticism Toyota has faced from activists and investors due to its perceived sluggishness in EV production. He shared that Toyota’s lobbying efforts against full EV adoption and its emphasis on hybrids have drawn scrutiny, especially considering the growing momentum toward electrification in the industry. The company’s apparent reluctance to fully embrace EV technology has raised questions about its long-term competitiveness.
Toyota’s View
Sam shared the statements made by Toyota’s Chairman, Akio Toyoda, the grandson of the company’s founder and a significant influence within Toyota, who shared his belief that EVs will remain a niche market. Sam went on to share that Toyoda’s views stand in isolation within the automotive industry.
He added that industry experts and organizations have consistently projected a more substantial role for EVs in the future, with predictions surpassing the 30% mark. Sam drew parallels with historical examples, citing instances where companies failed to adapt to emerging trends, likening Toyota’s stance to Blackberry’s dismissal of the rise of smartphones from China.
The Current Global Market Share
Sam also countered Toyota’s claim by highlighting the current global market share of EVs, which has already reached nearly 15%. He shared that industry experts anticipate that, with increasing affordability and advancements in technology, EVs could surpass internal combustion engine vehicles in market share by 2030.
Sam then questioned Toyota’s argument that approximately 1 billion people worldwide lack access to electricity, implying that this restricts the adoption of EVs. However, the International Energy Agency challenged this figure, stating that it is closer to 750 million. Sam dismissed this as a minor factor, suggesting that people in such regions are more likely to opt for affordable transportation like electric bicycles or motorcycles, which are not the primary market for Toyota.
The Next Kodak?
The video also shared Toyota’s resistance to global EV policies, with the company using its political influence to oppose laws favoring EV adoption. While Toyota continues to develop alternative powertrain technologies, Sam suggests that the company’s focus on concept cars may be an attempt to appease investors rather than adapting to evolving market dynamics.
Sam concluded, “I think Toyota is on the precipice of becoming the next Kodak.”
Toyota’s Resistance to Change
Several commenters shared their thoughts on the incident.
One user expressed concern about Toyota’s resistance to change, while another added, “I can’t imagine such a dominant manufacturer as Toyota being satisfied knowing that 3 out of every 10 customers worldwide will not be interested in their product.”
So what are your thoughts? Given the global shift toward EVs and the increasing market share they are gaining, do you think Toyota’s commitment to hybrids and hydrogen is a sustainable strategy? Or is the company at risk of being left behind in the evolving automotive industry?
